Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.021304 0.024172 0.027308 0.030994 0.035214 0.039899 0.045503
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.016495 0.020308 0.024849 0.030673 0.037970 0.046842 0.058495
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.013885 0.018043 0.023287 0.030417 0.039913 0.052195 0.069404
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.012433 0.016890 0.022780 0.031187 0.042967 0.059019 0.082771
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.010973 0.015475 0.021666 0.030876 0.044358 0.063570 0.093376
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010205 0.014891 0.021574 0.031899 0.047633 0.071002 0.108893
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009010 0.013541 0.020207 0.030852 0.047653 0.073531 0.117150
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008144 0.012577 0.019293 0.030351 0.048386 0.077131 0.127389
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007255 0.011483 0.018061 0.029196 0.047909 0.078679 0.134322
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006959 0.011295 0.018222 0.030288 0.051194 0.086693 0.153158
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.006686 0.011112 0.018363 0.031340 0.054493 0.095031 0.173507
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006402 0.010879 0.018393 0.032189 0.057496 0.103122 0.194317
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005912 0.010262 0.017730 0.031781 0.058249 0.107330 0.208503
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005485 0.009718 0.017150 0.031469 0.059155 0.111932 0.224081
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005110 0.009233 0.016628 0.031205 0.060102 0.116676 0.240485
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004917 0.009064 0.016662 0.031996 0.063181 0.125926 0.267467
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004596 0.008626 0.016156 0.031677 0.063985 0.130627 0.285186
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004471 0.008550 0.016330 0.032727 0.067709 0.141792 0.318744
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004110 0.007986 0.015505 0.031652 0.066820 0.142978 0.329487
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003843 0.007586 0.014973 0.031137 0.067083 0.146693 0.346643
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003529 0.007067 0.014161 0.029950 0.065738 0.146648 0.354639
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003468 0.007062 0.014401 0.031072 0.069714 0.159231 0.395777
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003403 0.007045 0.014616 0.032154 0.073708 0.172294 0.439959